The 2023 French Open is Underway!

The clay season is reaching its climax—we’re into the quarterfinals at the 2023 French Open! Let’s discuss the current surprises and who I think has a shot at winning.

Novak Djokovic is the one to beat. I feel like he’s by far the heavy favorite, even with Alcaraz in the draw—Djokovic has the most best-of-five experience on the tour and he has been playing his clean, ruthless, effective brand of tennis. Could Alcaraz beat him? Sure. But I think Djokovic just has more experience in majors, and his endurance is unparalleled.

Carlos Alcaraz isn’t doing too poorly either, beating Tsitsipas in straight sets today—his third straight opponent with a one-handed backhand. This kind of opponent does not bode well regarding his upcoming match with Djokovic because Alcaraz has been exploiting players with weaker groundstrokes all tournament (Taro Daniel’s forehand, the three aforementioned one-handers). Although Alcaraz won against Djokovic in Madrid last year, it’s unclear whether he’s ready to beat the Serb in what could easily become a five-setter.

Daniil Medvedev fell in the first round—after winning in Rome! I was shocked to see that happen because he was one of my favorites to make at least the quarterfinals. The Russian has been showing some clear improvements to his clay-court game, and I think he does have what it takes to become an excellent all-surface player.

I think Holger Rune has a decent shot at the title, but more importantly, I am super excited to see his rematch against Casper Ruud after last year’s scandal. Rune is a very intelligent and promising young player who has seen tremendous improvement over the past year.

As for the WTA, I think we can all agree that Iga Swiatek is the clear favorite on slow clay like this (even after her loss to Rybakina in Rome). She happened to double bagel Wang Xinyu in her third round match on Saturday, which just seems ridiculous to me. With Rybakina out, Swiatek’s chances seem even better.

Aryna Sabalenka is a close second, but that match against Stephens was a bit messy for my liking. When she’s on her game, she’s completely unbeatable. We’ll see if she can hold her composure all the way to a second major title of the year.

Coco Gauff is playing fairly well, but she is projected to meet Swiatek in the quarterfinals. It’s going to take an incredible performance for Gauff to beat Swiatek—the matchup is a nightmare for the young American. Until she can clean up the takeback and contact point on her forehand, I don’t think she’ll win a set against the Pole.

Jessica Pegula’s early loss was sad to see because I adore her playstyle—and I feel the same way about Caroline Garcia. While I feel Pegula’s opponent really found her rhythm, Garcia’s loss seemed to be a complete result of nerves. Garcia should be making quarterfinals or farther at every Grand Slam in the year, but her suffocatingly aggressive playstyle is hindering her. I honestly think that if she stood a foot and a half behind the baseline to return first serves, she would have won many of the matches she’s lost this year.

Ons Jabeur is also currently in the running. While I think grass is the Tunisian’s best surface, I also think she does well on clay. Her game isn’t what I would necessarily label “variety-filled” in the way you would call a Muchova or a Barty playstyle “variety-filled”—but Jabeur has an effective drop shot that should hamper most players still in the draw (but probably not Gauff or Swiatek). I could see Jabeur making the semifinals.

I’m excited to see what happens in the next week to see how accurate my predictions are!