US Open 2022 Discussion
Here are my current thoughts on the US Open after seeing some matches in New York!
General
My brackets were terrible.
Men’s Draw
Nick Kyrgios will take the title if he maintains the level of play he showed in his match against Medvedev.
On that note, Medvedev’s biggest issue in that match was the deep return. Allowing Kyrgios that much time to set up a serve +1 or a serve-and-volley point cost him the match, and his refusal to change his position on the court demonstrated a concerning lack of problem-solving skills.
Carlos Alcaraz always looks sharp, but over-hits and goes for so many more-difficult-than-necessary shots with such frequency that it may cost him his match against Sinner tomorrow. The drop-shots are clever, but the messy inside-out forehands are a waste of energy and do more harm than good. He is capable of solid play; not every match has to be an epic battle.
Alcaraz has the best second serve on the ATP tour in my opinion, but his first could use work with speed, placement, and consistency.
Regardless of his talent and form, I think Alcaraz will lose to either Sinner or Kyrgios. Sinner always seems much more solid than Alcaraz and is well-rounded enough to deal with his antics, and Kyrgios’ current playstyle is nothing Alcaraz has ever dealt with before (at least at such a high level).
Jenson Brooksby’s serve is a major setback in his game. Some work needs to be done with his technique.
I had noted that Rafael Nadal seemed less sharp than previously this year. I was right.
Casper Ruud becoming the world #1 would be disappointing.
Women’s Draw
Caroline Garcia is taking this one without dropping a set if she maintains her current form. Jabeur may prove tricky.
Garcia is simply outplaying everyone else right now.
Iga Swiatek’s first serve is a big weakness. Her flat serve is not good enough to use as frequently as she does; she doesn’t get a lot of aces or free points off of it.
Swiatek will lose to Garcia again (should they meet in the final). Garcia punishes weak serves like nobody’s business.
Swiatek’s matches against Davis and Niemeier were some of her worst performances of the season, arguably rivaling her losses at Dubai, Wimbledon, and the Australian Open. She didn’t problem-solve to win these matches; she just kept playing her “Plan A” until her opponent faltered. It was effective there. It will not be effective against better players.
Jessica Pegula is another player to watch out for, but I doubt she upsets Swiatek. Her greatest asset is also her biggest weakness; she’s a jack of all trades. She is well-rounded with no defined weaknesses. She also isn’t particularly the best at anything. (E.g. Swiatek is a better mover with a better forehand, Gauff has a better serve and backhand.)
Yuan Yue gave Pegula some trouble! She might be someone to look out for in the future.
Zheng Qinwen is still a major talent, but she needs to improve her first serve %. Her loss to Niemeier (who played decently, but not fantastically) was mostly nerves in my opinion. Her “breakthrough” hasn’t happened yet, but I think there is still a good chance she does something crazy in the 2023 Australian Open.
Danielle Collins’ serving stats are abysmal.
Naomi Osaka’s second serve is weak and punishable. Danielle Collins demonstrated that. Since she studies her ATP contemporaries’ serves to improve (as seen with Kyrgios), it may be prudent for her to see Alcaraz’s second serve up close and study.
Coco Gauff is an almost-fully-formed player, but not yet. If you’ve read anything about her game, you know it: her forehand is her worst shot. When (not if) it comes up to speed with the rest of her game, she will become a major pain for whomever is at the top of the rankings. It may be prudent for her to study Swiatek’s forehand (currently the best in the WTA in my opinion).
Simona Halep – what?
Serena Williams could have probably won this tournament if she had 4-6 months of matchplay in the lead up. Beating the world #2 is nothing to scoff at. She will be missed (and remembered as the GOAT).
Related note: my “Margaret Court GOAT” refutation post is pending (2 weeks).
Thanks for reading.