Will Rafael Nadal Defend His Title in Australia?

The Australian Open is coming up (stay tuned for my bracket), and with it comes all of the wild Slam predictions typically reserved for joking. But let it be known that in this post I am being completely serious with my assertion: I do not think Rafael Nadal will defend his title in Australia. I would honestly be shocked if he made the final of the tournament. 

I’m not hating on Nadal here, just to be clear, but I am making a prediction that he will fall short at the Australian Open for multiple reasons. Here are some of them:

  1. His form got increasingly worse throughout 2022. From winning the Australian Open and Roland Garros to crashing out of the second week at the US Open to Tiafoe in four sets and losing all but one match played at the ATP Finals, Nadal has seemingly gotten much slower from injuries throughout the year (especially at the US Open, where his movement looked very strange.) I don’t think he’ll be able to reset himself back to top form to win the Australian Open.

  2. The field is arguably stronger. Even accounting for the withdrawal of Carlos Alcaraz, Nadal will have to win seven best-of-five matches consecutively after losing best-of-three matches to Norrie and De Minaur. The Spaniard has had a tough start to 2023 already with the losses to those men, and a shock upset by a player of that general status is completely possible and highly plausible for Nadal this year in my opinion. 

  3. Nadal has never had the best luck in Australia. He is 2-and-4 in Australian Open finals, which is his worst winning record at any Slam’s final. He tends to find stronger form at Roland-Garros.

  4. Novak Djokovic has returned to play in Australia. Based on the form he has shown at the ATP Finals and Adelaide, it is him vs. the field, including Nadal. Djokovic is hugely dominant in Australia.

Although the Spaniard is capable of working a miracle every now and then, I would be very surprised to see him clinch another title in Melbourne. My current pick for the winner in Australia is Novak Djokovic.

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Under-The-Radar Players to Watch in 2023